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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.