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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."